NERC proposal 08 - Revision history

Genie-user: /* WP4 - Doing some science */

2008-06-06T09:21:25Z

WP4 - Doing some science

Genie-user: /* WP2 - Coupling new models to CIAS */

2008-06-05T19:01:18Z

WP2 - Coupling new models to CIAS

Genie-user: /* WP3 - Coupling GENIE and CIAS with BFG2 */

2008-06-05T19:00:12Z

WP3 - Coupling GENIE and CIAS with BFG2

Genie-user: /* Year 1 */

2008-06-05T18:58:39Z

Year 1

Genie-user: /* WP4 - Doing some science */

2008-06-05T18:48:48Z

WP4 - Doing some science

Genie-user: /* WP2 - Coupling new models to CIAS */

2008-06-05T18:22:50Z

WP2 - Coupling new models to CIAS

Genie-user: /* Project Partners */

2008-06-05T18:21:08Z

Project Partners

Genie-user: /* Year 1 */

2008-06-05T18:17:13Z

Year 1

Genie-user: /* Year 1 */

2008-06-05T18:15:52Z

Year 1

Genie-user: /* WP4 - Doing some science */

2008-06-05T18:13:48Z

WP4 - Doing some science

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 (i) The carbon taxes and emission scenarios necessary to achieve stabilisation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere by 2100, at various levels, with and without 'overshoot' of these concentrations in intermediate periods.  We will include in our studies the particular overshoot scenarios which are to be studied by the QUEST Overshoot Scenarios workshop to be held June 16-18th.  Currently in CIAS such studies are carried out only with the MAGICC model used in the Third Assesment Report.  A comparison of the MAGICC-based and GENIE-based solutions to the problem of stabilization will provide interesting insight into the functioning of the simple climate model set to emulate the behaviour of various GCMs, versus a more sophisticated EMIC approach.
 (ii) The uncertainties in the above analysis, using the techniques developed by Hankin (Robin to add how will do uncertainty analysis of GENIE and GENIE-E3MG coupling, if he thinks this can be done).  In particular we will explore the uncertainties which relate to the strength of feedbacks in the carbon cycle, which is of particular relevance to the attainment of stabilisation.  This we will be able to explore the potential for a range of  overshoot scenarios to result in the crossing of thresholds which trigger irreversible transitions in the earth system. This is of extreme policy relevance because it is likely that the stringent mitigation targets which are being called for (ref) cannot be obtained without 'overshoot' of concentrations.  It is thus very important to identify for example, when such overshoots might trigger a sink to source transition in the terrestrial biosphere.
-(iii) An application of bfg2 is the ability to study feedbacks in the coupled system.  Land use change has an effect on climate.  For example, as deforestation occurs, this affects regional rainfall patterns.  We will connect the land use model to the GENIE_LAND component in such a way that changes in land use alter changes in evapotranspiration and hence regional climate.  We will demostrate the effect of this using a few key deforestation versus avoided deforestation scenarios.
+(iii) An application of bfg2 is the ability to study feedbacks in the coupled system.  Land use change has an effect on climate.  For example, as deforestation occurs, this affects regional rainfall patterns.  We will connect the land use model to the GENIE_LAND component in such a way that changes in land use alter changes in evapotranspiration and hence regional climate.  Land use change also affects the albedo.  We will demonstrate the effects of these feedbacks using a few key deforestation versus avoided deforestation scenarios looking at both tropical and boreal forest areas.
 === Work Plan ===

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 Add description of JULES (Richard Betts/Jason)
 Add description of MAGICC6 (Sarah Raper)
 NOTE TO ALL: I HAVE ALREADY HELD DISCUSSIONS WITH RICHARD BETTS AND JASON LOWE AT HADLEY ABOUT THIS: THEY WILL HAVE A PERSON AT HADLEY TO WORK WITH ME ON THIS AND WE HAVE AGREED THIS WOULD WORK BEST IF I ALSO HAD A PERSON AT THIS END. HENCE THIS PIECE OF FUNDING IS MEANT TO FUND THE LAND USE PERSON AT THIS END.  I HAVE ALSO SPOKEN TO ROB WILBY AND HE WOULD LIKE TO BE COSTED IN TO THE PROPOSAL FOR AN AMOUNT OF TIME TO BE DISCUSSED TO PROVIDE ADVICE ON THE POSSIBLE USE OR  ASSIST WITH THE ACTUAL INCORPORATION AND USE OF WEATHER GENERATORS IN CIAS.   SARAH RAPER ALSO NEEDS A SMALL AMOUNT OF FUNDING TO PAY FOR HER CONTINUED HELP AND ADVICE IN CIAS.  HENCE ROB WILBY, RICHARD, JASON AND SARAH NEED TO BE CC'ED AND INVOLVED IN THE FINALISATION OF THE PROPOSAL.

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 (B) COUPLING OF MODULARISED GENIE TO CIAS
-Under existing funding the version of the GENIE model coupled to CIAS is an executable version. Additional benefits can be obtained through coupling in the modularised system, which allows a more flexible approach to the integration of climate and land use, and specific exploration of feedbacks in the system.
+Under existing funding the version of the GENIE model coupled to CIAS is an executable version. Additional benefits can be obtained through coupling in the modularised system, which allows a more flexible approach to the integration of climate and land use, and specific exploration of feedbacks in the system.  Having coupled JULES into CIAS, we will also couple JULES to GENIE within the CIAS system, using an appropriate weather generator.
 ===== WP4 - Doing some science =====

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 * WP1 - Manchester and UEA work on coupling new models of physics and land surface and also on multigas implementation (in reality this bit will hopefully be done before this proposal is funded)
-* WP 2 - Tyndall to integrate latest economic / land use etc models and
+* WP 2 - Tyndall to integrate land use and agriculture models and scope use of weather generators
 * WP 3 - ongoing effort to keep up-to-date GENIE on CIAS server
 FUNDED PEOPLE: SCIENCE WITH WP2: Santos, Hankin, new land use change person, some funding for Rob Wilby, some for Sarah Raper, some for Tim Wheeler

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 (i) The carbon taxes and emission scenarios necessary to achieve stabilisation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere by 2100, at various levels, with and without 'overshoot' of these concentrations in intermediate periods.  We will include in our studies the particular overshoot scenarios which are to be studied by the QUEST Overshoot Scenarios workshop to be held June 16-18th.  Currently in CIAS such studies are carried out only with the MAGICC model used in the Third Assesment Report.  A comparison of the MAGICC-based and GENIE-based solutions to the problem of stabilization will provide interesting insight into the functioning of the simple climate model set to emulate the behaviour of various GCMs, versus a more sophisticated EMIC approach.
 (ii) The uncertainties in the above analysis, using the techniques developed by Hankin (Robin to add how will do uncertainty analysis of GENIE and GENIE-E3MG coupling, if he thinks this can be done).  In particular we will explore the uncertainties which relate to the strength of feedbacks in the carbon cycle, which is of particular relevance to the attainment of stabilisation.  This we will be able to explore the potential for a range of  overshoot scenarios to result in the crossing of thresholds which trigger irreversible transitions in the earth system. This is of extreme policy relevance because it is likely that the stringent mitigation targets which are being called for (ref) cannot be obtained without 'overshoot' of concentrations.  It is thus very important to identify for example, when such overshoots might trigger a sink to source transition in the terrestrial biosphere.
 === Work Plan ===

← Older revision		Revision as of 18:22, 5 June 2008
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	Figure 1.		Figure 1.
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	distribution for any subset of the parameters present, and to specify the total number of model runs performed. The user may specify any of a wide range of statistical distributions for the uncertainty parameters, including normal, lognormal, uniform, triangular, beta, or Davies (Hankin and Lee 2006) distributions, the latter being specifically designed for risk assessment. Figure 1 illustrates the CIAS coupled model. Illustrative preliminary results have been published (Warren et al. 2008.) for stabilization scenarios considering CO2 only. Component codes are now being upgraded, and under existing funding additional modules will be connected including a water stress module and an agricultural model. An alternative climate model GENIE, in executable form, through the NERC project GENIEfY on which I am co-investigator, will also be connected. Finally, a set of initial multi-gas scenario simulations will be produced, in particular a set of ‘standard stabilization scenarios’ which result in stabilization of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at 450, 500 and 550 ppm CO2 by 2100 or shortly thereafter. Warren et al. (in press) describes the model and its components in more detail.		distribution for any subset of the parameters present, and to specify the total number of model runs performed. The user may specify any of a wide range of statistical distributions for the uncertainty parameters, including normal, lognormal, uniform, triangular, beta, or Davies (Hankin and Lee 2006) distributions, the latter being specifically designed for risk assessment. Figure 1 illustrates the CIAS coupled model. Illustrative preliminary results have been published (Warren et al. 2008.) for stabilization scenarios considering CO2 only. Component codes are now being upgraded, and under existing funding additional modules will be connected including a water stress module and an agricultural model. An alternative climate model GENIE, in executable form, through the NERC project GENIEfY on which I am co-investigator, will also be connected. Finally, a set of initial multi-gas scenario simulations will be produced, in particular a set of ‘standard stabilization scenarios’ which result in stabilization of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at 450, 500 and 550 ppm CO2 by 2100 or shortly thereafter. Warren et al. (in press) describes the model and its components in more detail.

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 Manchester (Riley / Ford)
 [Bristol (Williams)]
 === Case for Support ===

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-FUNDED PEOPLE: SCIENCE WITH WP2: Santos, Hankin, new land use change person, some funding for Rob Wilby, some for Sarah Raper
+FUNDED PEOPLE: SCIENCE WITH WP2: Santos, Hankin, new land use change person, some funding for Rob Wilby, some for Sarah Raper, some for Tim Wheeler
-FUNDED PEOPLE: SCIENCE WITH CIAS_GENIE: Santos, Hankin, new land use change person, some for Rob Wilby, some fro Sarah Raper, some for advice by Carlos Perres and Andrew Lovett
+FUNDED PEOPLE: COUPLING CIAS AND GENIE.  Santos, Salmon.
 ==== Year 2 ====

← Older revision		Revision as of 18:15, 5 June 2008
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	* WP 3 - ongoing effort to keep up-to-date GENIE on CIAS server		* WP 3 - ongoing effort to keep up-to-date GENIE on CIAS server
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		+
		+	FUNDED PEOPLE: SCIENCE WITH WP2: Santos, Hankin, new land use change person, some funding for Rob Wilby, some for Sarah Raper
		+	FUNDED PEOPLE: SCIENCE WITH CIAS_GENIE: Santos, Hankin, new land use change person, some for Rob Wilby, some fro Sarah Raper, some for advice by Carlos Perres and Andrew Lovett

	==== Year 2 ====		==== Year 2 ====